Miracle or Myth? Assessing the macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence

The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon. It constructs a novel micro-to-macro framework by combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on the exposure of activities to AI and likely future adoption rates, utilising a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages to aggregate the effects. Its main estimates for annual aggregate total-factor productivity growth due to AI range between 0.25 and 0.6 percentage points (0.4 and 0.9 pp. for labour productivity). The paper discusses the role of various channels in shaping these macro-level gains and highlights several policy levers to support AI’s growth-enhancing effects.