Exploring possible AI trajectories through 2030

February 3, 2026

Exploring possible AI trajectories through 2030 outlines four plausible scenarios of AI progress, from stalled to accelerated development, using expert insights and the OECD’s beta AI Capability Indicators to inform policy decisions. This report contributed empirical foresight to the safety assessment in the International AI Safety Report 2026.


The paper aims to improve understanding of how artificial intelligence (AI) is evolving and explores how AI innovation might advance – or slow down – by 2030. It presents four scenarios for possible AI trajectories by that year, providing a baseline for analysing future developments and their potential impacts.

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